暖冬って
今日から旧暦では１０月に入りました。ようやく冬突入です。
最近天気予報ではやたらと｢暖冬｣という予想を耳にします。私は単に季節の廻りが遅れている年に当たっているだけなので今からそれなりの冬がやってくるとは思っているのですが、そもそもこの｢暖冬｣ってどういう状態を指しているのか私はいまひとつよく分かっていません。
雪が少ない冬？
気温が高い冬？
寒い日が少ない冬？
なんとなくですが、一般的には｢暖冬｣というと｢気温が高い冬｣をイメージして話をしているような気がしています。まあ、気温が高ければそれなりに雪の量も減るでしょうから雪の項目も付随してくるのかもしれませんが。
私の勝手な長期予報では冬が短くなるという意味での｢暖冬｣は可能性があるかもしれないと思っていますが、その他の項目に関しては全く期待していません。
何故って、冬は寒いものだからです。
自然のことですから毎年必ず同じ状態になるということは当然ありませんが、冬が寒くないわけありませんし、ここいらではいくら少ないといってもそれなりには雪が積もります。
だから寒くなるもの、雪が積もるもの、と覚悟して冬を迎えることにしています。
今がちょうど秋から冬の変わり目でして、サザンカ梅雨もこの時期に来ているので別におかしくありません。巷ではサザンカ梅雨の時期が例年よりも遅いとかで｢異常気象｣的な捉え方もあるようですが。
この雨が過ぎる頃には今度は小春日和がやってくるのを期待しています。暦から考えると当然そういう流れになってくるのでしょうが、ここでまたぽかぽか陽気が続くと｢暖冬｣だとか｢異常気象｣だとかいって騒ぐのでしょうかね。
今年は秋に閏月が入り、一月長かったわけですから冬が遅れて感じるのは当然でしょう。秋にあれだけの秋晴れと高温を満喫したら少しは考えそうなものですが、どうも気象庁は旧暦というものを頑なに否定しているようです。その割には２４節気などは説明しているんですからなんか矛盾しています。
季節は人間が決めているのではなく、自然が決めているものです。そして暦はそれに従って人間が便宜上作ったものですが、どうも新暦というものはこの｢自然に従って｣という部分が欠落している気がします。
数十年単位という長期的視点に立つと確かに異常気象というべき現象も否めませんが、最近巷で騒いでいる｢異常気象｣というものはどうも新暦の弊害と現代人の自然からの乖離に端を発している気がしてなりません。
更に言えば、仮に｢異常気象｣があったとしても、それは我々人間の驕りが招いた結果なのですから甘んじて受け入れるしかないんですけどね。
2006年11月21日 22:18
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